COVID-19 Second Wave To End In July, Third Wave Expected After 6 Months: Govt Panel
The second wave of COVID-19 in India is expected to decline by the month of July this year. Moreover, the third wave of the pandemic can be expected in about six to eight months. A three-member panel of scientists has made these observations. It must be noted that the panel has been set by the Department of Science and Technology under the Science Ministry of the Government of India.
Scientists made use of the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) model to predict that by the end of May, 2021, India will witness about 1.5 Lakh cases on a daily basis. Moreover, by the end of June, 2021, we will witness 20,000 COVID-19 cases every day.
Professor Manindra Agarwal, a panel member, informed that states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Gujarat, Haryana other than Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak. According to the model, while Tamil Nadu is yet to see its peak between May 29 and May 31, Puducherry will witness the peak on May 19 and May 20. He further stated that states in east and northeast India are yet to witness their peaks. In the north, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are reporting an increase in the COVID-19 cases, while the peak is yet to be observed.
Scientists suggest that according to the SUTRA model, the third wave is expected in six to eight months. Furthermore, this time many people will not be affected by COVID-19 third wave due to immunity because of vaccination. According to Professor Agarwal, India will not witness a third wave till October 2021 at least.
It must be noted that mathematical models such as the SUTRA model helps in predicting the intensity of pandemics as well as influence policy decisions. The SUTRA model came into existence in 2020 so as to study the COVID-19 trajectory. Additionally, the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, the government panel, was formed to make COVID-19 projections in the country.
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Disclaimer: This article is issued in the general public interest and meant for general information purposes only. Readers are advised not to rely on the contents of the article as conclusive in nature and should research further or consult an expert in this regard.
